The Joint Forces Command issued its Joint Operating Environment report for 2008 — aka JOE 2008. Mexico and Pakistan are listed as the two countries in danger of sudden collapse. Obviously predicting the future is dicey, but if Mexico were to collapse suddenly into civil chaos — worse than even today — there would be millions of refugees flowing into here almost immediately instead of the current steady flow.
Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
I say we need a new President Polk to invade Mexico — take her natural resources and make it into states 51-56. Oil, gold, copper, awesome beaches.
Called me a bit cold and calculating, but for a potential disaster, there is also a potential for great good, both for Mexico and the US.
The corruption problem has been getting worse for quite a few years now, despite even the vigorous efforts of the current Mexican president to root it out. If we think of it as a festering wound, something that won’t heal with current efforts, then maybe it needs to be opened and flushed. The breakup of the Soviet Union offers some insight. In the best of cases, you could have an Estonia or Lithuania, with free markets and robust representative democracy. In the worst cases, you could end up with Serbia and the endless fighting there. But how it turns out depends on our response.
With all the experience gained in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the capacities that we’ve built, along with the home turf advantage, a response in Mexico may actually be easier in some respects than in the Middle East. Of course, that’s assuming the population of Mexico doesn’t galvanize to an American incursion and try and slaughter the gringos. But assuming that isn’t the case (Mexicans are well aware of how Americans work), we go in aggressively, identify the drug gangs, take out anarchic elements, and then begin the rebuilding, which would start about two to three weeks after we roll across the border.
That’s where it becomes a mutually beneficial relationship. It’s a boon for American business. It’s a boon for the Mexican economy. Mexicans finally get an opportunity for political reform. It’s chance to establish closer ties. It’s a chance to get rid off illegal aliens, as they flock back to their country to help rebuild (they are a patriotic people) and partake in new opportunities.
It would also be an opportunity for conservatives in Congress and elsewhere to show leadership while the Dems run around with their heads cut off.
So, what would obviously be a very disastrous situation, could, in fact, have a happy ending.
To add: There’s is a potential risk for Reconquista fervor to overtake refugees streaming across the border, stoked by elements already present in the US and the open borders loons. That, along with other dangers, could spell disaster for us if Obama hesitates or shows his leadership ability by taking a bold step off a cliff. However, what he’s most likely to do is to yield to more competent people and then take credit for their work. The downside is that going through such an incident with some measure of success is likely to get him re-elected.
Oy Vey!
STRATFOR has been predicting this for months.
Mexico is havin’ troubles.
If you are adding new states could you please consider adding England to your list….we are kind of lonely out here.
I saw this. Not happy. Not surprised. Wonder what the ONE will do? NOTHING!
Let’s grab Canada while we’re at it. Fifty-four Forty or Fight!
And whats more awesome. We are moving down that way. Sighhhhhh…hey stay on your side of the flipping border and duke it out. Have at it. Leave us outta it.
And whats more awesome. We are moving down that way. Sighhhhhh…hey stay on your side of the flipping border and duke it out. Have at it. Leave us outta it.
That’s precisely the attitude that will get us into the most trouble. They won’t stay across the border. Refugees will stream across. We need to be proactive, pick a side when chaos or civil war breaks out, and then hammer the bloody hell out of everything, like in Iraq and Afghanistan. Once the country’s pacified after a few weeks, we roll in with the Navy CBs and the Army Corps of Engineers, do an Iraq lite, and be out of there in six to eight months.
Is David proposing an economic stimulus plan?
Assuming everything goes according to plan, the final results would yield a beneficial long term economic relationship. However, whether it would be an actual net economic stimulus is in question. It would likely “prime the pump,” but the government expenditures alone might offset it. Besides, it’s insane, either on moral or prudential grounds, to spark a country’s collapse for the nominal possibility of en economic bump, which doesn’t even begin to cover the structural problems with in the economy.
Stephanie,
“You can fence yourself in, but you cannot fence the world out.”
-Tolkein (Some elf said it in FELLOWSHIP)
David Marcoe is right. Such an event will cause a Mass Exodus. Remember the mass Refugee crisis during/after Katrina.
Now imagine that x1,000,000 and only a FEW of them speak English.
Now take some Aspirin.