We failed to post or comment much on the March26 sinking of a South Korean Navy vessel. It is now pretty certain that North Korea sank the vessel with a torpedo. The evidence is pretty clear and of course North Korea denies involvement and is demanding to view the evidence. The question remains of course… What to do about it? What will South Korea do about it? More importantly perhaps is what will we do about it? Well… as usual the eyes of the world are fixed on the U.S. and the Obama Administration to see how we will respond in defense of our close ally South Korea in the face of this heinous attack killing 46 South Korean sailors. It is an act of war of course. We are bound by both treaty and honor to respond in some fashion.
The eyes of the world of course don’t matter so much as the eyes of our enemies. What lessons will Iran and other enemies draw from our relative lack of response. This piece by Gordon Chang at Pajamas Media highlights the issue pretty well:
As hours turn into days, days into weeks, and weeks into months, the certainty of a retaliatory response decreases. In our complex world, there is always a reason not to act, and those reasons grow stronger over time. In the Cheonan case, we are already hearing the calls for South Korea to move on and consider “the broader issues.”
Secretary of State Clinton, when she was in Tokyo on Friday, ruled out a purely regional reaction to the Cheonan’s sinking and signaled that China, Pyongyang’s best friend, would have to be part of the world’s response. Yet six decades of history show that China will not permit the international community to punish the North in any serious fashion. In short, the Obama administration looks like it will, once again, let Kim Jong Il off lightly.
“Deterrence requires a combination of power, the will to use it, and the assessment of these by the potential aggressor,” noted Henry Kissinger. “Moreover, deterrence is the product of those factors and not the sum. If any of them is zero, deterrence fails.”
Deterrence looks like it might fail soon. The Cheonan incident could convince Chairman Kim and other potential aggressors that they will pay no price for committing horrible acts. Even in such a clear-cut circumstance as the sinking of the South Korean frigate, the international community is having trouble imposing punishments on the aggressor.
When responsibility is murkier, the urge to retaliate will be even more muted. And that can give ideas to terrorism-sponsoring states. Take Iran, for instance. As the Islamic Republic builds its links with al-Qaeda and accelerates the enrichment of uranium, we have to wonder whether the mullahs think the slow — and uncertain — response to the sinking of the Cheonan will make nuclear terrorism a possible option for them.
So there is a lot riding on Washington’s response to the sinking of the Cheonan. This is not just about South Korea.
In addition… who will want to be our friend? We dump all over our closest ally in our existence and leave our other closest allies (South Korea and even Japan) exposed to the predations of the lunatic regime in North Korea.
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South Korea MUST take action against the North. The sinking of Cheonan was an act of war, and must be responded to.
North Korea has been pushing the envelope of military actions for decades, each action becoming more overt, of a larger scale, seeing just how far it can go without being called to account.
North Korea has a number of diesel submarines of various sizes. South Korea, as wll as the United States, knows where they are located and when they leave port.
My suggestion is to lay an ambush with one of our own submarines and have one (or more) of the North’s submarines simply fail to return.
North Korea has virtually no ASW capability and certainly no fixed sonar or acoustic detection system to alert them to what might happen.
We need National Command Authority with sufficient backbone to make the call. To tell China that North Korea is going to be hit, and hard, and if China seeks to interfere, then they can kiss all that US Debt they hold goodbye.
Personally, I’d call the Chinese Ambassador in and explain the facts of life to him. If China interferes with US and/or South Korean action against the North, then EVERY Chinese asset in the United States will be seized. The US will consider all it’s debts to China as null and void, and we will immediately recognize Taiwan as the only legitimate China.
They can feel free to seize all US assets in China. We’ll make more. We still have the industrial and economic base to do that. China doesn’t.
But that’s just me. Other’s mileage may, of course, vary.
Excellent thinking, Tim – which, of course, is beyond the reach of our current administration.
You know, I hate having to consider military options, but there are times when you have no other realistic choices. You have to stand up to bullies, or they will feed off of your weakness and grow stronger.
I’d honestly love to have a diplomatic solution, but those sorts of things require that BOTH sides are willing to come to some sort of an agreement, some form of compromise.
With North Korea, that’s just no longer possible.
What really worries me more is what will happen when Dear Leader dies. I honestly expect that to occur this year, or the next at most. His health is failing and his pics show him more “sick” looking, thinner than before, with a sort of distant gaze to his eyes.
North Korea, like Iran, is a cancer on the world body. It needs aggressive treatment to save the host.
Overt military action may not be the best course, and in fact it may be what Kooky Kim wants. He’s trying to groom his son to succeed him, a son without a great deal of respect or ability and Kim might be trying to start something to get his kid some rep for exercising some leadership during a conflict before Kim checks in at his room in Hell, which by all accounts should be quite soon.
However, as Tim suggested, a sub ‘accident’ might be just the right thing. What happens in the deep tends to stay there. And considering the attack on the Cheon was probably a sub attack, this would be justice indeed.
Somehow I think Chang is right. They will simply wait and wait and wait and eventually release some sort of “united” statement with China and whoever that means absolutely nothing. Despots of the world will realize they will be able to act without reprisal. Its very possible some dark times are ahead.
I agree with you, Tim — a “disappearing” sub might just be the ticket to advise Kim that a) we noticed and b) don’t approve without having to get into the whole wrestling with China to get them to reign in Kim themselves. The Chinese are supremely pragmatic; they’ll remember, yes, but they won’t publicly back down.
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