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Since we’re all gearing up for the launch of SpaceX (Details http://www.republibot.com/content/realspace-spacex-oked-falcon-9-launch-tommow-june-4th ) I thought I’d ask what you folk think the chances of private space industry are?
Personally, I’m pretty glum about the whole thing. If the government was willing to tolerate such things, we’d have been doing it by now, and as Stephen Baxter said, “NASA’s purpose is to limit access to space, not expand it, and anyone who hasn’t realized that yet simply hasn’t been paying attention.” (Baxter is English, by the way) Obama’s fiat cancellation of Constellation basically just reaffirms this for me.
So I’m thinking that once any space company starts to have any kind of success, the Feds’ll shut ‘em down, citing “Danger” and “Public Welfare” and whatnot, though I’d really love to be wrong about this.
Come on, someone, prove me wrong! Or if you can’t do that, at least lets talk about what you think the industry’s chances are.
I think the chances actually pretty good. If anyone can do it, Richard Branson can. I also think that if NASA doesn’t get on board, then countries like India and China or maybe Brazil (if they can get it together) can sponsor and host such companies.
I agree with that view of NASA, but NASA seems more at risk than Virgin Galactic. Of course — I desperately want private space companies to succeed. Culturally we need something that is just absolutely and purely cool — and space travel could be that. As I tell my students in International Law… space is the “common heritage of all mankind” — until someone gets there and finds something…. then it’s finders keepers.
I think we’ll see regular space “tourism” within the next 5 to 10 years. Monthly, maybe weekly flights for the super rich on Virgin or a Burt Rutan engineered platform. A little better than the “vomit comet” but not lasting much longer. I don’t think NASA or the U.S. government will do anything to actively stop this. I also think we’ll see private interests (the same players) working on a design that could carry payloads to the space station for a fee. I’m not sure if those will be successful. That’s a massive jump in scale and current launch platforms are pretty efficient at carrying unmanned payloads into space.
I also think someone will make a serious run at a space elevator. Nanofiber technology is likely already sufficient to make this a possibility. There are still a lot of hurdles to overcome there, but I think someone will start an earnest attempt. If that can be done succesfully it would be a very inexpensive way to get stuff into orbit. My guess is that will be done by a government with university and/or private industry support.
I think private space flight has a promising future. A few years ago when I had a chance to met with Gene Kranz (a flight director of Apollo 13, played by Ed Harris in the movie) he seemed to have given up all hope on NASA. Maybe he was having a bad day but he certainly indicated that he had high hopes for private space exploration.
For me, what’s truly depressing is the complete disconnect I feel with my own government. NASA and space exploration are one of the few things I’m very gung ho about the government taking the lead and am eager to spend money on and to support. So to watch it get gutted like this is yet another reminder of how at odds I am with our (lack of) leadership.
Hey folks… I inadvertently put two Open Thread posts both of which had comments… I chose the earlier one.
V… I couldn’t figure out to repost all the comments using user names so if you can repost your question here — I got it figured out. Sorry folks!
LOSER!
Sure, Floyd. Just like how Fritz’s comments keep getting conveniently delayed “awaiting approval.” Uh-huh.
Yeah…What he said!
And you want to lead the first unmanned expedition to the red planet? Whewwee!
You need to increase the orange juice ratio in those mimosas, Floyd. A little more vitamin c and a little less vitamin “a.”
Countries that have space programs:
Manned:
Russia
US
China
Unmanned:
France, Ukrane, Israel, Iran, India, Japan
Countries that had unmanned space programs, but abandoned them:
UK
Australia
Italy
(All were abandoned in the late ’70s, though Italy has recently expressed some interest in re-starting the program. Curiously, the UK has passed laws stating that British Citizens can not travel in space. If a Brit wants to be part of a shuttle crew, he has to become a US citizen first.)
International Organizations with Unmanned Capability
ESA (European Space Agency)
S. Korea is very, very interested in having their own unmanned space program, and cutting into some of the commercial launch business that France gets. They’ll undoubtedly be the next country to join the “Unmanned Club.”
India will almost undoubtedly be the next country to join the “Manned Club.” They’re developing large boosters, training astronauts. Inside of five years, they should have someone in space, and then they’ll quickly outstrip China, I think.
Brazil has been attempting to join the “Unmanned Club” for 15 or 20 years, but they’ve got serious financial concerns, and have had a number of fatal accidents.
You forgot these guys:
“Curiously, the UK has passed laws stating that British Citizens can not travel in space. If a Brit wants to be part of a shuttle crew, he has to become a US citizen first.”?????
Why?!?!
Maybe they’re afraid the Monty Python crew will get back together and do a “Twits in Space” episode!
North Korea’s got that covered.
It’s very ungentlemanly, all those tubes and wires, nowhere to get a decent cup of tea and the powdered scones are an abomination.
And how the heck would they have gotten a decent steak and kidney pie to last on a long space voyage? Nevermind…there is no such thing as a decent steak and kidney pie! My bad!
Have you guys seen this creepy picture of Obama before? I just had to link it, because the dude looks like he’s about to say, “no, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die!”
These are the kind of pics that the MSM used to publish of Bush all the time, but now they always seem to find a good angle on Obama. Funny that.
Holy crap it does look like a Bond villain.
HOLY MOLEY! Contrast that to this one guys:
http://www.homebrewit.com/images/reagan_toast_wine_left.jpg
This is one of my favorite pictures of President Reagan.
“No,Mr. Netanyahu,I expect you to die!”
Wait,here’s my post on the thread that Floyd conveniently dumped:Did anyone see the parody of “We Are The World” about the “Peace” Flotilla(“We Con The World”)? Power Line has it,as well as Roger Simon at PM.It’s a scream (the great Caroline Glick of the Jerusalem Post appears).
All right here is my repost that Floyd
censoredlost.What would be your opinion on this as an immigration policy, or a part of an immigration policy:
“Any foreign national may become a US citizen by first serving 8 years in the US military (National Guard, Coast Guard are not included). Upon completing their 8 years they will be a US citizen as will their dependent children if any. This program may only be applied for from their native country (ie. no illegal immigrants unless they go home first then re-apply).”
My brother and I discussed this and I have trouble objecting to it but am conflicted. What do you think?
my first fear is that we’d be training terrorists. Many of the terrorists have become citizens first. I could be wrong though.
It’s un-American to tie citizenship to a “carrot.” I am very impressed with new citizens who “join up,” they’re the salt of the Earth, but I think the military runs much better when those who want to serve are serving side by side with others who choose to serve. How much would you like your job if 20% of your co-workers were forced to work there? How dedicated would those 20% be to their jobs?
Eh look at your Roman history and you’d say no.
Ah, good point Stephanie. Are you referring to the conscripting of foreigners from conquered countries? I’d forgotten about that.
Offering citizenship to foriegners who fought in the army. I honestly think Rome began to lose its indentity when that started happening.
Victor Hanson references that a lot about the Greeks hiring mercenaries too… when citizens don’t care enough to fight their own wars and defend themselves — doom.
I believe thats actually what Achilles and his boys were…reference Homer’s Illiad. They owed no allegiance to Greece at all.
Or when they don’t care enough to give up an airplane seat so the family of a fallen soldiers can attend his funeral – doom.
I’ll have to disagree a bit about Rome. Service in the Roman army was part of the Roman strategy of assimilation. Sure, sometimes Rome did exterminate captured enemy settlements and cities but for the most part they were offered the choice of Roman rule and military service. After two or three generations, these people then saw themselves as Roman and were fiercely loyal to the Empire. I mean, the entire “Struggle of the Orders” and the rise of the Roman Republic revolved around solving the conflict created by the formation of classes based on true Romans versus those they subdued. I’ve read that this history of assimilation would lead to weakness but that would be over a thousand years later. And I think there were far greater reasons for that weakness overall.
Not sure if the example is analogous to today’s situation anyway. After all, there were no Roman Liberals who travelled around Gaul or Egypt and screamed, shouted, yelled and freaked out about how racist and terrible Rome was and encouraged segregation.
Didn’t the Romans often leave local cultures and religions somewhat intact?
Before the Emperors started to declare themselves deities Romans were pretty much live and let live (similar to the popular Stoic philosophy). The New Testament was a good example. The Romans let the Jews sacrifice at the Temple, worship as they saw fit and even let the Pharisees pretty much run the day to day life so long as the “rendered unto Caesar” they were left alone. St. Paul was even a Roman citizen.
In 70 AD after a Jewsih rebellion… the Romans destroyed the Temple, scraped it clean (which later made room for the Muslims to build the Al-Aqsa Mosque — the “golden dome) and renamed it Palestine… a latinization of “Philistine” — Israel’s mortal enemy (it would be like renaming Greece “Turkey”).
A lot of the great empires… Persians, British… pretty much let the locals run their own nest so long as they paid taxes, fought when asked. When individuals wanted to assimilate to the empire’s culture concessions were often made.
I’m agin’ it.
Not a good idea. Too much military that may hold allegiance outside US interests. Could be a republic-killer.
I heard some loser call John Gibson’s show with that idea, V. Simply put: It’s Moronic. Idiocy on a grand scale.
You want the military full of people who are serving only so they can get a Green Card? When the going gets tough, you think those foreign nationals are gonna feel all that compelled to give “the last full measure of devotion” for a country that said, “You want to be here legally? Fine. Here’s a gun. Now go face down those crazed jihadis.”
Besides, what’s to stop a bunch of those jihadis to lie just to get the M-16 in their hands so they can pull a “Malik Nadal Hasan” on the American military personnel?
Daniel… we have enough American gang bangers joining the ranks…. Some of my cop friends are encountering very professional responses when they serve warrants on homes… urban combat trained gangsters…
If you go to ESPN right now there is a disturbing picture where the Laker’s Pau Gasol appears to be saluting Hitler. While I’ve never been a Lakers fan (detest them almost as much as the Celtics) I would have never called them Nazis…until now.
@ Kit:
I’m not sure why. The UK shut down their space program in 1977 (Frightened by Star Wars, perhaps? Vader sure is spooky!) and then signed the UN Moon Treaty in 1978. Maybe they were hoping to enforce compliance? Maybe they specifically wanted to shut down commercial development of a manned space program? I don’t know.
The British have enough problems with Autons and Cybermen without going looking for them.
@ Fritz: >>>And how the heck would they have gotten a decent steak and kidney pie to last on a long space voyage? Nevermind…there is no such thing as a decent steak and kidney pie! My bad!<<<
Generally food in space sucks with one noteable exception: When Skylab was launched in 1973, it was sent up with a couple of tons of food already in it. Weight wasn't much of an issue, and caviar isn't any heavier than peanut butter, and has more energy per ounce…and when you're dealing with NASA's budget even on a small project, what's another million for food?
I don't know the menu, but basically if it could be freeze-dried and/or vacuum packed with a reasonable shelf life, and it wasn't the kind of thing that would splinter or fragment and fly all over the place (Crackers, potato chips, bread, some corned beef), then it was packed and went into orbit. The only thing expressly excluded was alcohol, so you've got your lobster thermidore, but no white wine sauce. No, seriously, they had vacuum-packed lobster. That stuff'll last for more than half a decade!
Skylab didn't end up getting used as much as NASA had originally intended – only 9 people and 168 days of occupancy (It was intended to be in use for years and years and years), so *most* of that stuff was never eaten. A lot of it was probably still edible when the station burned up over Australia
Puts a whole new twist on the Australian phrase, through another shrimp on the barbie, er throw another lobster on the heat shield.
“Weight wasn’t much of an issue.”
I assume you mean the weight between different food choices, relative to the total weight of food compared to the total, mission payload weight. I’m sure you know better than I do that weight is everything when launching something from the surface of the Earth.
The Saturn V could put 100 tons of cargo in orbit at a pop. After the space station’s weight, it’s life support, and all that stuff was accounted for they still had three metric tons of capacity. That’s 6,600 pounds of food. The average person eats about 1500 pounds a year.
Weight wasn’t an issue in this case.
Not to be a contrarian, I’ve read nothing on this specific subject, but I find it difficult to believe, knowing how much NASA focused on mass and volume of every other aspect of the space program. I’ve been bing’ing around a bit and can’t find anything on the web that discusses this topic. Do you have a link you can send me? I don’t doubt you’re right, I just want to understand more about this, to learn why it was not a concern.
SpaceX’s “Falcon 9″ successfuly launched! Their mockup payload is now in orbit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP5gykvTBpM
As I understand it, it wasn’t a concern because they had 3 tons of extra capacity, and decided to use it.
I’ve gotta say… I’ve been reading some over at The Libertas Film Magazine website…. They’ve got some good stuff over there.
http://www.libertasfilmmagazine.com/
But what’s with not engaging their readers? And based on comment box traffic, LFM is not doing so hot. Jason and Govindini also seem to be holding hard onto some grudge, such that they won’t even link sites run by people who supported Libertas and the Liberty Film Festival.
They do have interesting stories and some very smart commentary. But there seems to be a certain arrogance going on over there. Did you notice Jason’s dismissive attitude toward blockbusters? “For you Iron Man fans, this is a great new short above – from Patrick Boivin – that’s currently making the rounds. It’s charming (in a loud, Hollywood way) and features some high-end FX.”
For a guy who’s devoted to George Lucas, this snarkiness toward the “loud, Hollywood way” is rather odd. Or perhaps not, given Jason’s devotion to “Independent” cinema.
I am coming to see Jason the same way I see James Bowman (the guy who called me a “touchy fantasist” because I dared dissent from Bowman’s attack on fantasy cinema and literature – but it got my name on the American Spectator website, tee hee). These are two very smart men with whom I can agree on a lot of things. However, they display a certain snobbishness that is not attractive.
yeah I know… it’s not a homey place at all and certainly not a “community”. And they have no archive of the old stuff so there’s a huge gap. They have a link to a 2006 Patrick Goldstein blog post explaining Libertas and then flash forward to 2010. Exsqueeze me?
Just a guess, but they were quite fond of excising posts which don’t paint them in a flattering light. Sadly, and strangely considering Nolte’s split with Jason & Govindini, Big Hollywood’s powers-that-be behaving likewise more often than you’d think.
I don’t resent them for it, but they’re Ivy League. Whaddaya want?
For all of that knowledge, though, Jason’s a hack of a filmmaker, too. More power to him for actually putting out product that spits in the lefty mindset’s face, but all the Truffaut-wannabe French New Wave schtick is just as off-putting as the snobbiness described above.
Any website that uses the word, “oeuvre”, probably isn’t meant for me.
They also seem to be obsessed with the possibility that Captain America might be watered down to something not as flag waving as the comics were/are…look you can’t be a stuffy stick up your ass film school tool and conspiracy theory nut at the same time, pick one and stick with it.
“Any website that uses the word, “oeuvre”, probably isn’t meant for me.”
Best laugh I’ve had all week! Rich! Crank up the bumper sticker machine!
Ok, I looked into it as best I was able online, and called an uncle of mine (Long distance) who actually involved in the project back in the day, and basically I’ve fallen for an urban legend.
They did apparently have several tons of food on board, but it wasn’t as nice as I’d been fooled into believing. It was still better than the food on any other space flight or station however. Here’s the menu:
http://www.ag.iastate.edu/centers/ftcsc/media/Skylab.Food.List.pdf
So basically the situation got exaggerated, however that doesn’t in any way detract from the fact that I’m a dope.
I like that you went out of your way to debunk yourself!
R3… you’re your own Amazing Randi
Amazing Randi is fantastic.
Me too. A stand up act.
You’re no dope. You know more about this stuff than I ever will. I just couldn’t understand why weight wouldn’t matter. It takes an awful lot of very expensive fuel to get a pound of anything into orbit. For a weak force gravity is a mother.
For those interested in college basketball:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ys-woodenobit060410
I just can’t stand people who can’t admit it when they’re wrong, and I refuse to become one of ‘em.
Even with that menu, they were going to eat a lot better than I ever do!
Yeah, me too.