If this is true we have nearly two centuries of government and media fueled hysteria ahead of us. I think the Armageddon scenario is just the thing. Though we could raise the battleships Yamato and Bismark — turn them into spaceships and fight this thing.
Maria Eugenia Sansaturio and scientists from the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain have used mathematical models to calculate the risk of the asteroid hitting the Earth anytime between now and the year 2200.
And they were shocked to discover that there are two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in the year 2182.
‘The total impact probability of asteroid ‘(101955) 1999 RQ36′ can be estimated in 0.00092 –approximately one-in-a-thousand chance-, but what is most surprising is that over half of this chance (0.00054) corresponds to 2182,’ Sansaturio said.
The asteroid is now behind the Sun and will next be observable only in the spring of 2011.
Scientists have estimated and monitored the potential impacts for this asteroid between now and 2200 using two different mathematical models.
Between now and 2060, the chances of Earth impacts from 1999 RQ36 are remote.
But the researchers discovered that the odds increase fourfold by 2080 as the asteroid’s orbit brings it swinging back towards Earth.
The odds then drop before rising again in 2162 and 2182.
Asteroid 1999 RQ36 is part of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA) group, which all have the possibility of hitting the Earth due to their orbits and are all considered likely to cause damage.
Even though the asteroid’s orbit is well-known thanks to 290 different observations by telescopes and 13 radar measurements there is uncertainty about its path because of the so-called Yarkovsky effect.
All of which raises the question… what did we do to this asteroid to deserve this? Why does it hate us?
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It hates us becaue of all the junk we’ve left in space and on the moon. That, and the fact that you used the title of a perfectly good Rush song for this post.
A Rush song even I like … for the record.
if the asteroid was in Red Sector A I would’ve used that.
So we’ve got 200 years to figure out a solution, and we just de-funded NASA. Nice.
JimmyC, we’ve got to outsmart the asteroids. More funding for our space program is precisely what they would have anticipated we’d do. This is asymetrical warfare. We’ve got to stay one step ahead.
Let’s not rush to judgment here. Without the Yarkovsky Effect Porvaznik would have never gotten any tail while in College.
I thought that was just plain old inertia!
Oh never mind…LOL!