Winter is Coming: Sociology and the Next Great War

Here’s today’s ray of sunshine from the Modern War Institute . 

“Cohen said that while the election was surprising, there is ‘deeper stuff going on,’ a ‘deeper political disruption’ that is ‘breaking down’ domestic political traditions as well as strategic stability around the world. This falling apart is a ‘crisis of the liberal democratic order’ that emerged after 1945, at least in part because generations have passed and ‘World War II is not fresh in anybody’s mind.’ Cohen’s assessment ended on a bleak note: ‘don’t expect too much from deterrence’ in this climate, he cautioned. ‘We’re going to be back in the war business’ in the not too distant future.”

8 comments to Winter is Coming: Sociology and the Next Great War

  • I agree with the overall premise, although I’m not sure I’m on board with all the fanciful talk about “The Fourth Turning” and all that. History does repeat itself, but not in such a systematic way. Wars happen because people believe that things are worth fighting for. Better or worse, it’s as simple as that. It’s human nature, and it’s not changing anytime soon. Given that, it’s probably just a matter of time before WWIII (or some version of it) happens.

  • Rufus

    He’s probably right regarding politics, but technology is a yuge factor in war and prevention of war. Actual world war wasn’t possible until around 1900, and poof! we had one. World War II technology seems almost as advanced as a world can be and still wage “total war,”

    It seems more likely we’re in for less visible, traditional “battlefield” war and a continuation of cold war stuff. Look at the inroads the wahabists have made by taking OPEC dollars from the 70s and 80s and spreading Islam throughout Europe through immigration and out breeding the locals.

    Putin, Soros, Google, Facebook…