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Not So Fast


Robert Kagan of The Brookings Institution (and the Reagan Administration among many other posts) has an interesting piece entitled “Against the Myth of American Decline at The New Republic (of all places!):

Is the United States in decline, as so many seem to believe these days? Or are Americans in danger of committing pre-emptive superpower suicide out of a misplaced fear of their own declining power? A great deal depends on the answer to these questions. The present world order—characterized by an unprecedented number of democratic nations; a greater global prosperity, even with the current crisis, than the world has ever known; and a long peace among great powers—reflects American principles and preferences, and was built and preserved by American power in all its political, economic, and military dimensions. If American power declines, this world order will decline with it. It will be replaced by some other kind of order, reflecting the desires and the qualities of other world powers. Or perhaps it will simply collapse, as the European world order collapsed in the first half of the twentieth century. The belief, held by many, that even with diminished American power “the underlying foundations of the liberal international order will survive and thrive,” as the political scientist G. John Ikenberry has argued, is a pleasant illusion. American decline, if it is real, will mean a different world for everyone.

But how real is it? Much of the commentary on American decline these days rests on rather loose analysis, on impressions that the United States has lost its way, that it has abandoned the virtues that made it successful in the past, that it lacks the will to address the problems it faces. Americans look at other nations whose economies are now in better shape than their own, and seem to have the dynamism that America once had, and they lament, as in the title of Thomas Friedman’s latest book, that “that used to be us.”

The perception of decline today is certainly understandable, given the dismal economic situation since 2008 and the nation’s large fiscal deficits, which, combined with the continuing growth of the Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Turkish, and other economies, seem to portend a significant and irreversible shift in global economic power. Some of the pessimism is also due to the belief that the United States has lost favor, and therefore influence, in much of the world, because of its various responses to the attacks of September 11. The detainment facilities at Guantánamo, the use of torture against suspected terrorists, and the widely condemned invasion of Iraq in 2003 have all tarnished the American “brand” and put a dent in America’s “soft power”—its ability to attract others to its point of view. There have been the difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which many argue proved the limits of military power, stretched the United States beyond its capacities, and weakened the nation at its core. Some compare the United States to the British Empire at the end of the nineteenth century, with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars serving as the equivalent of Britain’s difficult and demoralizing Boer War.

With this broad perception of decline as the backdrop, every failure of the United States to get its way in the world tends to reinforce the impression. Arabs and Israelis refuse to make peace, despite American entreaties. Iran and North Korea defy American demands that they cease their nuclear weapons programs. China refuses to let its currency rise. Ferment in the Arab world spins out of America’s control. Every day, it seems, brings more evidence that the time has passed when the United States could lead the world and get others to do its bidding.

Go read the whole thing… the long and the short of it is that our decline has been and will be by choice and that our current age of pessimism feeds the perception of decline. This is one reason why 2012 is so important… even if we lose the White House a down ballot landslide in favor of Reason (the GOP with plenty of Tea Party spice) can help put a stop or begin the process of reversal. Of course we will most likely win the White House and we need some Reaganesque optimism as well.

7 comments to Not So Fast

  • Positivity, have you had your plus sign today?

  • Scott M.

    + Newt..but I’ve quit the Republican Party

  • -fritz-

    While we are all up in arms about the possibility of Obama winning the election, let’s remember that if we hold the House and take the Senate, we will have in essence, neutered the IIC!

    • Jake Was Here

      Not if he continues to try pulling BS like that last “recess appointment” fiasco. This is not a guy who gives a damn for The Rules.

  • kbiel

    What horrifies me is not that we are in decline (and we are by choice), but that the rest of the world is working hard to win the race to the bottom. We are at least taking a more leisurely route there and we have the ability to reverse course. That is, we can if the sleeping giant will awaken.

  • Rufus

    What’s the Lincoln quote about our demise being self-inflicted?

  • Rufus

    I think a demise is possible, but it also seemed, in the ’70s, that Japan would own all of Manhattan, then it was Saudi Arabia. China’s in the catbird seat now, but I guess it’s harder to dominate the world than it looks. Tears for Fears were right.

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